Vandenberg Village, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS66 KLOX 200624
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1124 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...19/819 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through Saturday as low pressure
develops along the West Coast, along with increasing night
through morning low clouds and fog. Gusty northerly winds are
expected across southern Santa Barbara County, through the
Interstate 5 Corridor and for other interior areas for the next
several nights. Below normal temperatures are expected into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...19/823 PM.

Clouds are much less entrenched versus this time last night as a
northerly surface pressure gradient starts to strengthen this
evening. Gusty Sundowner winds are surfacing across southwestern
Santa Barbara County this evening with gusts between 35 and 47 mph
being observed at this time. KSBA-KSMX surface pressure gradients
have tightened to -3.6 mb currently. A wind advisory remains in
effect for the southwestern portion of Santa Barbara County
through early Saturday morning. The surface pressure gradient is
expected to tighten into Friday night and the latest high
resolution model solutions are indicating KSBA-KSMX surface
pressure gradients leaning to between -5 mb and -6 mb on Friday
evening. Given the higher resolution model wind data indicating a
broader swath of 40 knot surface winds and NAM-WRF 950 mb thermal
gradients approaching 14 degrees Celsius, a high wind watch is
being considered for southwestern Santa Barbara County for mainly
Friday evening. With a stronger pattern developing, a wind
advisory will also likely be needed on Friday night for the
southeastern portions of Santa Barbara County, as well.

A wrinkle is starting to develop with the latest higher
resolution model solutions trending toward a drier and windier
event across the eastern portion of Santa Barbara County on
Saturday night. KSBA-KBFL surface pressure gradients approach -4
mb, but when in combination with KSBA-KSMX surface pressure
gradient, local studies suggest a greater than 50 percent chance
of advisory level winds in the Montecito area. Near critical fire
weather conditions could develop on Saturday night across the
greater Santa Barbara area. This will need to be monitored
closely over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Otherwise, a cooling trend is expected over the coming days with
a stronger west to northwest push. Clouds confined to the Los
Angeles County this evening should expand back northward and
return to the valleys again as an eddy circulation remains. Patchy
low clouds in place already along the Central Coast should expand
through the night as the air mass cools to the dewpoint. At least,
areas of low clouds and fog will develop, but higher confidence
exists in the clouds expanding across the Central Coast and into
the Santa Ynez Valley.

***From Previous Discussion***

There were a few low clouds along some of the beaches early this
afternoon and these may persist until late today. Otherwise,
sunny skies prevailed across the region which will continue
through sunset. A rapid increase in onshore pressure gradients
were noted into the afternoon, with the NAM fcst LAX-DAG gradient
topping out around +9.7 mb at 00Z this afternoon, while the LAX-
BFL gradient is expected to be +5.7 mb at that time. These onshore
gradients will help to bring gusty NW winds to the Central Coast
and SW SBA County by mid to late this afternoon, as well as gusty
W-NW winds from the I-5 Corridor of NW L.A. County to the Antelope
Vly. Gusty NW winds will also affect portions of the Santa Lucia
range and Salinas River Vly starting late today or early this
evening. Winds gusts are expected to reach Advisory levels for
many of these areas and a series of Wind Advisories have been
issued. Elsewhere this afternoon into this evening, breezy to
gusty SW-NW winds will affect many other areas as well.

Temps this afternoon will be several degrees cooler in all areas
compared to the last few days, but remain 4-8 deg above normal for
most areas, except dropping to a few deg below normal for the
Central Coast into the Santa Ynez Vly. The warmest vlys and lower
mtns should top out in the mid 80s to mid 90s, except around 100
for the Antelope vly.

A broad upper level trof will prevail over the region through
Sun, altho the lowest H5 heights will be Sat night and early Sun
at around 575-579 dam. A broad W to WSW flow aloft will prevail
thru the period.

A marine layer pattern for the most part can be expected tonight
thru Sun, with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and
fog for the coast and vlys, altho the extent of the low clouds
may be a bit less Sat night into Sun morning due to some northerly
offshore flow and offshore pressure gradients and trends.

Winds will continue to be factor in the fcst thru Fri night and
possible into Sat as strong onshore gradients persist. The
strongest winds will likely be Fri night for SW SBA County and
into the L.A. county mtns including the I-5 Corridor and portions
of the highway 14 corridor. The Wind Advisories are in effect thru
late Fri night for many of these areas. Please see the latest
Non-Precipitation Weather Message (LAXNPWLOX) for further details.

Temps are forecast to be about 10 degrees cooler on Friday then
another 2 to 5 deg cooler on Sat before warming back up several
deg on Sun due to the offshore gradients. Highs will be several
deg below normal in all areas Fri thru Sun, coolest on Sat at
6-12 deg or more below normal for many inland areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...19/218 PM.

EC and GFS in generally good agreement during the extended. The
upper level trof will linger over srn CA Mon and Tue, then some
upper level ridging should move into the area Wed and Thu.

Night and morning marine layer clouds and some fog is expected
for much of the coast and vlys each day thru the extended period.
Breezy to gusty SW to NW winds can be expected each afternoon into
the evening. Temps should continue to be several deg below
seasonal norms Mon and Tue, then warm to slightly below normal on
Wed and to near normal to slightly above normal on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0622Z.

At 06Z over KLAX, the marine layer was around 1400 feet deep with
an inversion top at 4700 feet with a temperature of 23 Celsius.

Moderate confidence in flight category forecast, low confidence
on timing of formation and clearing. Chance of ceilings tonight
into Thursday morning are asl follows: KPRB (30%) KSBP (40%) KSMX
(100%) KSBA (20%) KOXR (60%) KCMA (50%) KSMO (100%) KLAX (100%)
KLGB (100%) KBUR (60%) KVNY (50%).

At KSBA, moderate chance of LLWS 10-20 knots tonight (Thu), high
chance of either LLWS 20-30 knots Friday night or north gusts
surfacing 20-30 knots.

Reduced vis from BLDU possible 21-06Z at KSMX KPMD KWJF. KWJF has
highest risk, with a low but present chance of LIFR/IFR.
KLAX...Ceilings will arrive as early as 07Z or as late as 10Z.
Moderate confidence in bases staying in the 012-025 range.
Clearing to VFR could happen as early as 16Z or as late as 20Z.
Southeast winds likely after 12Z, with a 20% chance of exceeding
8 knots.

KBUR...Chance of ceilings is 60%, forming as early as 09Z or as
late as 13Z. Moderate confidence in bases at 010-015. High
confidence in slightly stronger than normal onshore winds in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...19/820 PM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged upper-end Gale Force northwest winds
beyond 20 miles from shore tonight through Saturday night.
Moderate confidence in gusts of 30 to 35 knots impacting the
nearshore Central Coast waters and western Santa Barbara Channel
each afternoon and evening during this stretch. All waters will
see building and hazardously steep short period seas. Small craft
should stay in safe harbor, especially in the afternoon and
evening hours.

High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 342-343-378-379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 4 PM PDT Friday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late
      Friday night for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday
      for zones 350-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late
      Friday night for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Sirard
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...RK/Lund/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox